Economic Calendar

How to read the economic calendar

Each row is a scheduled release. The columns tell you when it lands, which economy it covers, how much attention the market usually pays to it, and three numbers: previous, forecast and actual.

Previous is what the last reading was. Forecast is what economists expect. Actual appears once the figure is published. The number that tends to move prices is not the actual figure on its own, but the gap between actual and forecast. A result in line with expectations is often already reflected in the price. A surprise in either direction is what markets react to.

The impact rating is a guide to how much attention a release usually attracts, not a prediction. A low-rated release can still matter if it lands during thin trading or alongside other news.

Releases that tend to matter most for Australian traders

For the ASX, the SPI and the Australian dollar, the recurring events that usually draw the most attention are:

• RBA cash rate decisions and the accompanying statement. The language in the statement often moves the Australian dollar as much as the decision itself.
• Australian CPI. Published quarterly by the ABS, with a monthly indicator in between. Feeds directly into rate expectations.
• Australian labour force data. Monthly employment change and unemployment rate.
• US non-farm payrolls. Released on the first Friday of the US month and typically sets the tone for the following Monday on the ASX.
• US CPI and FOMC decisions. US rate expectations drive global risk appetite, and the ASX usually follows.
• Chinese PMI and trade data. Relevant to the resources sector and to iron ore exposed names in particular.

Timing from Sydney

Most major US releases land overnight Sydney time, which means the market reaction shows up in SPI futures and the overnight session before the ASX opens. European releases generally fall in the Sydney evening. Australian data is published during local business hours.

The calendar above defaults to a set timezone, so change it to your own before working from it. Australian daylight saving also shifts the gap between Sydney and the US and European sessions twice a year, which moves the local time of every overnight release.

What tends to happen around a release

Liquidity often thins in the minutes before a major announcement and spreads can widen. Price can move sharply in the seconds after, and the first move is not always the direction the market settles on. Orders placed during that window may fill at prices well away from the last quote.

None of this is a prediction of what any particular release will do. The calendar is a planning tool: it tells you when the scheduled events are, so nothing on the list catches you unaware.